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Today Renewed hostilities: U.S. struck an Iranian military site near Bandar Abbas Thursday and intercepted drones near Hormuz; the IRGC said it retaliated against the U.S. airbase that launched the strikes, and Kuwait’s air defenses responded to missile and drone threats. In parallel, U.S. officials confirmed Trump has been briefed on a draft MOU that would reopen the strait over 60 days in synchronized steps, and Washington sanctioned an Iranian shipping agency Wednesday. Rubio: talks made “some progress”; Trump will give diplomacy “every chance to succeed.” Oil down >10% since May 18; Brent rebounds toward $97, WTI ~$93. AAA gas $4.426.
The escalation everyone feared arrived — and then, just as quickly, stood down. After Israel’s Sunday strike on Hezbollah targets in southern Beirut, Iran followed through on its warning and exchanged strikes with Israel over the weekend, breaching the fragile ceasefire. By Monday, Iran announced it had ended its military operations against Israel and Israel signaled it would hold fire; on Tuesday the two agreed to halt attacks against each other. President Trump urged both sides to de-escalate and said the two countries are close to a new ceasefire, with progress between Washington and Tehran — though Iran warned operations could resume if Israel continues its campaign in Lebanon. Markets round-tripped the whole episode: WTI spiked to $95 early Monday and Brent crossed $98 before both surrendered the gains, falling below $90 and $93 respectively on Tuesday. OPEC+ approved a July quota increase of 188,000 bpd, and the EIA’s June outlook — released today — sees the largest fuel-price impacts of the conflict landing this quarter from the Hormuz closure, with Fitch projecting the strait could reopen around the end of July. For drivers, the relief is accelerating: AAA’s national average fell to $4.161, down nearly 20 cents in one week. The strait itself remains closed under the dual blockade — the halt in attacks is de-escalation, not yet resolution.
The escalation arrived — and then stood down. After Israel’s Sunday strike on Hezbollah targets in southern Beirut, Iran followed through on its warning and exchanged strikes with Israel over the weekend, breaching the fragile ceasefire. By Monday, Iran announced it had ended its military operations; on Tuesday, the two countries agreed to halt attacks against each other. President Trump urged de-escalation and said both are close to a new ceasefire, with progress between Washington and Tehran — though Iran warned operations could resume if Israel continues its campaign in Lebanon. The halt is de-escalation, not yet resolution.
Markets round-tripped the entire episode. WTI spiked to $95 early Monday and Brent crossed $98 on the weekend exchanges before both surrendered the gains: crude fell below $90 Tuesday, with Brent below $93. OPEC+ approved a July quota increase of 188,000 bpd, Chinese crude imports pulled back aggressively, and Fitch projected the Strait of Hormuz — still closed under the dual U.S.-Iran blockade — could reopen around the end of July, with Brent averaging $87 for the year and a possible oversupply by 4Q26.
For drivers, the relief is accelerating. AAA’s national average fell to $4.161 — down nearly 20 cents in one week — as May’s crude slide works through the pump lag; the weekend’s brief spike never reached drivers. The EIA’s June outlook, released today, sees the largest fuel-price impacts of the conflict landing this quarter from the Hormuz closure, especially for diesel and jet, before prices ease through 2027. Continuing coverage: oil · gas by state · geopolitics.
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