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Today Baker Hughes May 22 release: U.S. oil rig count jumps 10 to 425 — biggest weekly gain since 2022. Trump threatens renewed Iran strikes if talks fail; Iran reportedly working with Oman on permanent Hormuz toll framework. Rapidan Energy warns Brent could surge toward $130 if Hormuz disrupted through August. WTI $94-$99; Brent ~$104. AAA gas $4.552 with 45M Americans traveling Memorial Day weekend (record).
Baker Hughes reported the U.S. oil rig count rose 10 to 425 in the week ended May 22 — the largest single-week gain since 2022 — signaling U.S. shale is beginning to respond to the sustained elevated-price environment. President Trump threatened renewed military strikes if U.S.-Iran talks fail, even as Tehran says the latest U.S. proposal narrows differences. Iran is reportedly working with Oman on a permanent Hormuz toll framework. Rapidan Energy warned Brent could surge toward $130 if Hormuz remains disrupted through August. A record 45 million Americans are expected to travel Memorial Day weekend, with AAA at $4.552 — the highest holiday level in four years. Brown University Climate Solutions Lab puts the cumulative gasoline burden on U.S. households at ~$24 billion since the Iran war began.
U.S. shale is starting to respond. Baker Hughes reported Friday that the U.S. oil rig count rose by 10 to 425 in the week ended May 22 — the largest single-week increase in oil-directed drilling since 2022. The acceleration is concentrated in West Texas (Permian) and South Texas (Eagle Ford). Rising rigs today translate to higher production volumes six to twelve months out, making this the clearest forward-looking signal yet that U.S. shale is starting to monetize the sustained elevated-price environment, though still well below pre-conflict levels.
The diplomatic track remains caught between progress and threat. President Trump threatened renewed military strikes on Iran if U.S.-Iran talks fail, Bloomberg reported. Tehran says the latest U.S. proposal narrows differences but disputes over Iran’s uranium stockpile and potential Hormuz tolls quickly reignited tensions. Iran is reportedly working with Oman on a framework that would formalize a permanent toll system on Hormuz transit. Rubio described “slight progress” in Pakistan-mediated talks. Rapidan Energy warned that if Hormuz remains disrupted through August, the fallout could rival the 2008 Great Recession, with Brent potentially surging toward $130 a barrel.
The consumer impact is now quantified. A record 45 million Americans are expected to travel Memorial Day weekend, 87% driving, despite AAA’s national average at $4.552 — the highest Memorial Day level in four years. Brown University’s Climate Solutions Lab puts the cumulative gasoline burden on U.S. households since the Iran war began at ~$24 billion, or close to $200 per household. GasBuddy’s summer model points to a $4.80 nationwide average; the all-time record $5.02 (June 2022) is back in range if Hormuz closure drags into summer. WTI traded between $94.75 and $99.41 today; Brent climbed to $104. Continuing coverage: rig count · oil · geopolitics.
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