The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is now visibly underway. Shipping transits through the chokepoint have accelerated as vessels openly navigate the waterway with their tracking signals on, restoring Persian Gulf exports to roughly 75% of pre-war levels — a dramatic turnaround from the near-total blockade that defined the conflict and pushed Brent above $120.
The most concrete signal of the ramp-up came from Saudi Arabia, which has begun loading tankers at its Ras Tanura terminal, one of the world’s largest crude-export hubs. The resumption points to a major regional output recovery, and Riyadh is not alone: producers including the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Qatar are all boosting supply as the security picture improves and shipowners regain confidence in the route.
Crucially, the binding constraint on the recovery has shifted from geopolitics to logistics. Middle Eastern producers are boosting output faster than they can secure tankers to move it, and the resulting bottleneck could temper the pace at which Gulf barrels reach global refineries. Freight rates for the region have firmed as charterers compete for available tonnage, a friction that may slow — but is unlikely to reverse — the normalization now underway.
On the policy side, the focus has turned to how quickly OPEC+ restores volume. Iraq is seeking a higher OPEC production quota to recoup the oil sales it lost during the war, joining a broader regional output ramp. The push adds to expectations of higher OPEC+ export quotas replenishing refinery inventories worldwide, a bearish backdrop that has anchored prices near pre-war levels.
The supply surge has been the dominant force in the market this week. Brent fell to around $72 a barrel, its lowest since February 27, before the conflict began, and posted a weekly drop of more than 10% — its largest in a month. The war-risk premium that defined the spring has been almost entirely erased, with the market now focused on the pace of inventory rebuilds rather than the threat of disruption.
Risks have not vanished entirely. The container ship Ever Lovely was struck by a projectile southeast of Oman, a reminder that residual security threats persist even as commercial traffic returns. But President Trump confirmed the strait remains open and traffic has continued, and the brief price spike that followed quickly faded. For now, the trajectory is clear: the Gulf is reopening for business, and the oil is flowing back into a market that no longer fears for its supply.
Continuing coverage: Geopolitics · Strait of Hormuz Explainer · Saudi Arabia.