A reminder that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is not risk-free arrived this week when the container ship Ever Lovely was struck by a projectile southeast of Oman. The attack briefly lifted oil prices about 2% on Thursday, interrupting a steep multi-session decline and underscoring that residual security threats persist even as commercial traffic returns to the chokepoint in force.
The rebound proved short-lived. President Trump confirmed that the Strait of Hormuz remains open and that traffic has continued despite the incident, and the price spike faded almost as quickly as it appeared. By Friday, Brent had resumed its slide toward $72 a barrel, the lowest since February 27, as the market refocused on the broader story of returning Gulf supply.
The strike landed against a backdrop of continued friction between Washington and Tehran. Trump separately accused Iran of violating the ceasefire by firing drones at ships near Hormuz, a charge that adds to the list of unresolved disputes hanging over the 60-day roadmap toward a final peace agreement. Whether the Ever Lovely incident was connected to that activity or an isolated event remained unclear.
For shipowners, the episode reinforces a cautious posture even as volumes recover. Industry bodies have warned throughout the reopening that the U.S.-Iran memorandum leaves key questions about safe passage unanswered, and incidents like this one keep war-risk insurance premiums elevated. The result is a recovery that is real but uneven — traffic is surging, yet operators remain alert to the possibility of sudden flare-ups.
The market’s muted response is itself telling. Earlier in the conflict, a strike on a vessel near Hormuz would have sent prices sharply higher; this time, the reaction was modest and quickly reversed. That shift reflects a fundamental change in sentiment: with Persian Gulf exports back to roughly 75% of pre-war levels and producers ramping output, traders now treat isolated security incidents as noise around a normalizing trend rather than the start of a new disruption.
The durability of that confidence will be tested in the weeks ahead as the 60-day roadmap plays out and the physical reopening continues. For now, the takeaway is that the strait has stayed open through its first real post-ceasefire security test — a meaningful milestone for a waterway that carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil.
Continuing coverage: Geopolitics · Iran · Oil Prices.