OPEC+ is a 23-nation alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia that controls roughly 40% of global oil production. Their coordinated output decisions — whether to cut, hold, or increase production — directly set the floor for global oil prices.
Current Context
Current state (July 7, 2026): OPEC+ policy is the dominant bearish force. Over the weekend the group approved a 188,000 bpd quota increase for next month, continuing to unwind long-standing curbs, and Saudi Aramco cut Arab Light to Asian buyers by $11 to a $1.50 discount — its first discount since 2020. But cohesion is under strain: Iraq has reportedly sought a higher quota and told the group it could leave if its demands are not met, raising the prospect of another exit after the UAE departed in May. Crude sits near four-month lows even after Iran struck a Qatari LNG tanker near Hormuz and the U.S. revoked Iran’s oil-sale license this week.