OPEC+ is a 23-nation alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia that controls roughly 40% of global oil production. Their coordinated output decisions — whether to cut, hold, or increase production — directly set the floor for global oil prices.
Current Context
Current state (May 22, 2026): Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE (a former OPEC member, departed May 1) asked Trump to call off Tuesday’s planned Iran strike. Baker Hughes May 22: U.S. oil rig count jumped 10 to 425 — the biggest single-week gain since 2022 — as non-OPEC supply begins responding. Saudi Aramco CEO Nasser warns market normalization is pushed to 2027 if Hormuz reopening delayed past mid-June. EIA’s May STEO cut OPEC’s 2027 spare capacity forecast to 2.5M bpd from 3.8M prior. EIA: 10.5M bpd Persian Gulf production was shut in during April; expected to peak near 10.8M bpd in May. Rapidan Energy warns Brent could surge toward $130 if Hormuz disrupted through August.