OPEC+ is a 23-nation alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia that controls roughly 40% of global oil production. Their coordinated output decisions — whether to cut, hold, or increase production — directly set the floor for global oil prices.
Current Context
Current state (June 9, 2026): OPEC+ approved a July quota increase of 188,000 bpd despite persistent supply risks — modest barrels into a market where ~10.5M bpd of Persian Gulf production remains shut in. De-escalation took hold this week: Iran and Israel agreed Tuesday to halt attacks, and Trump says both are close to a new ceasefire. Fitch projects Hormuz could reopen around the end of July and warns rapid capacity recovery plus a more aggressive OPEC+ policy could recreate an oversupply by 4Q26, with Brent averaging $87 for full-year 2026. Crude fell below $90 as the escalation premium unwound; Chinese imports pulled back aggressively.