Oil prices rallied Monday after President Trump told CNBC he does not care if talks with Iran come to an end, stoking fears that Washington and Tehran will not reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. West Texas Intermediate futures rose more than 5% to close at $92.16 per barrel, and international benchmark Brent crude advanced more than 4% to settle at $94.98.
“I really don’t care. I couldn’t care less,” Trump told CNBC in a phone interview when asked whether negotiations are over. He was responding to an Iranian state media report that Tehran will halt talks with the U.S. in response to Israeli attacks in Lebanon, and that Iran will completely close the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation.
The rally reversed a punishing stretch for crude. Brent and WTI closed last week down 11.1% and 9.6% respectively — their worst weekly performance since mid-April — on what had been growing optimism that the two sides were nearing a 60-day memorandum of understanding. For the month of May, Brent fell almost 19%, its worst month since the COVID-19 pandemic, and WTI lost 16.5%. Both benchmarks remain up more than 30% since the U.S.- and Israeli-led war against Iran began February 28.
Analysts had warned that the May sell-off ran ahead of events on the ground. Bob Parker, senior advisor at the International Capital Markets Association, said prices will likely hold between $90 and $100 a barrel “at least for the next couple of months” until there is greater clarity on any lasting peace agreement, citing “inevitable” investor skepticism toward the negotiations. He added that even if Hormuz is reopened, “that opening will only be partial” given the damage to Gulf infrastructure and continuing security challenges for tankers.
Goldman Sachs, which raised its forecasts during the May volatility, sees fourth-quarter 2026 Brent at $90 and WTI at $83, with risks “two-sided.” The bank warned that while persistent Middle East supply disruptions could push prices higher, weakening global demand could create meaningful downside risks. The split captures the market’s central tension: a physical market that remains acutely tight against a macro backdrop that is softening.
Physical indicators continue to point to scarcity. Iran’s crude loadings fell below 0.3 million barrels per day in May, down from 1.5 million in April per UBS, and Middle East producers have shut in millions of barrels per day of output because tanker traffic through Hormuz has collapsed. The disconnect between depressed paper prices in May and the tight physical reality was a key reason analysts viewed the sell-off as vulnerable to exactly the kind of sharp reversal seen Monday.
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