OPEC+ is proceeding with its previously announced 206,000 barrel-per-day April production increase despite ongoing volatility tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict, the group confirmed Tuesday. No emergency Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting has been called, and Saudi Arabia continues to balance market-share considerations against price-support concerns in its public positioning.
The April increase reflects the gradual unwinding of earlier voluntary cuts that had removed roughly 1.65 million bpd from global supply during 2025. The pace of restoration has been slowed by the conflict, which has both reduced physical Middle East supply through the Hormuz disruption and elevated prices, creating political pressure for OPEC+ to add barrels.
Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline continues to operate at its full 5 million bpd capacity, allowing the kingdom to export despite Hormuz uncertainty. Other Gulf producers — Kuwait, the UAE, Iraq, and Qatar — have more limited bypass options, and their output has been effectively constrained by strait access even when their production facilities are physically operational.
The IRGC’s Tuesday threat to target oil facilities in neighboring countries that allow U.S. attacks has introduced a new layer of risk. Gulf producers are monitoring the situation closely, and several have quietly stepped up physical security at export terminals, processing facilities, and key pipeline nodes. Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq facility, which handles 5% of global oil processing, was damaged by drone strikes earlier in the conflict.
May production decisions remain in flux. OPEC+ officials have signaled they stand ready to act if Hormuz disruption extends, whether by formally pausing the output increase or by calling an emergency meeting. For now, the group is prioritizing predictability, betting that maintaining the announced path avoids signaling either panic or complacency. The next scheduled ministerial meeting is in early May.