Crude oil whipsawed through another volatile session Tuesday. Brent crude futures briefly spiked above $100 a barrel, touching an intraday session high of $101.15, when reports emerged that Vice President JD Vance had called off his planned trip to Islamabad for the next round of U.S.-Iran peace talks. Prices then retreated after President Trump’s late-afternoon Truth Social post extending the ceasefire indefinitely.
Brent settled +3% at $98.48 per barrel. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate settled +3% at $92.13. Both benchmarks had closed Monday with larger gains — WTI +7% and Brent +5% — on the U.S. seizure of an Iranian cargo ship over the weekend.
The intraday swing reflects how tightly oil prices are now tracking every headline out of Washington and Islamabad. “This is still the largest oil supply shock in the history of the oil market,” said Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context. Johnston said a sustained push above $100 Brent could unlock roughly 2.1 million barrels per day of new supply, but that Hormuz disruption continues anchoring prices at elevated levels.
The WTI futures curve remains in steep backwardation through December 2026, signaling tight prompt physical markets. The Brent-WTI spread has widened as maritime risk premiums return, reflecting continued shipping uncertainty through the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, which has forced 28 ships to turn back, remains in place despite the ceasefire extension.
OPEC+ is proceeding with its April 206,000 bpd output increase, but Gulf producers are watching IRGC threats against neighboring oil facilities closely. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warned Tuesday it would target oil infrastructure in any neighboring country that allows the U.S. to launch attacks on Iran from its territory, adding tail risk to regional crude flows.