Oil prices are whipsawing on continued Hormuz uncertainty. WTI crashed 11.45% Friday to $83.85 — the second-largest single-day drop since the war began — after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open” for commercial traffic.
Iran reversed course Saturday, reimposing control of the strait in response to Trump’s refusal to lift the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. Monday’s futures open will likely show significant upside as the market re-prices in the geopolitical premium.
The Brent-WTI spread had compressed sharply on Friday’s reopening news as seaborne crude flows were expected to normalize. That spread is likely to widen again with Monday’s trading as Hormuz remains effectively closed to most commercial vessels.
Traders are pricing in continued uncertainty through Tuesday’s U.S.-Iran ceasefire expiration. Trump has threatened to resume bombing if no deal is reached; Pakistan is mediating a second round of talks next week.