Russia is the world's second-largest oil exporter and the largest natural gas exporter. Since 2022, sanctions have restructured Russian energy flows: crude oil redirected to Asia at discounted prices, while Europe pivoted away from Russian pipeline gas.
Current Context
Current state (June 9, 2026): Russia remains one of few major producers outside the Persian Gulf disruption zone as de-escalation takes hold. Iran and Israel agreed Tuesday to halt attacks, and crude round-tripped the weekend’s escalation — WTI below $90 after touching $95. OPEC+ approved a July quota increase of 188,000 bpd, and Fitch flags possible 4Q26 oversupply once Hormuz reopens (~end of July in its view), with Brent averaging $87 for 2026 — a softer price backdrop for Urals differentials. The U.S. previously issued a waiver permitting the sale of Russian crude already loaded onto tankers. Chinese imports pulled back aggressively.