OPEC+ is proceeding with its planned 206,000 barrel per day April output increase despite the ongoing volatility around the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia is holding at current production levels.
No emergency meeting has been called despite Friday’s oil crash and Saturday’s Hormuz re-closure. Gulf producers are watching the status of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, which expires Tuesday April 21.
Saudi Arabia has restored full capacity on the East-West Pipeline after repairs. The pipeline provides 5 million bpd of Red Sea export capability, insulating Saudi exports from Hormuz disruption.
May production decisions will likely depend on the ceasefire outcome. If Trump follows through on his threat to resume bombing, expect emergency consultations. If a broader deal is reached, OPEC+ may accelerate the output normalization plan.