Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) threatened Tuesday to target oil facilities in neighboring countries if those nations allow the United States to resume launching attacks on Iran from their territory. The warning adds significant tail risk to Gulf oil infrastructure and has put regional producers on heightened alert.
The threat follows ongoing IRGC statements warning against any resumption of direct U.S. military action. The Revolutionary Guard has positioned itself as the primary hawkish voice in Tehran, and according to regional sources, its commanders have opposed concessions to the U.S. as long as the naval blockade of Iranian ports continues.
Gulf Cooperation Council states — including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Bahrain, and Qatar — have hosted U.S. military installations for decades. Any targeting of oil infrastructure in these countries would represent a major escalation and directly threaten global oil supply. Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq facility, which handles 5% of global oil processing, was damaged by drone strikes earlier in the conflict, demonstrating that regional facilities remain vulnerable.
The threat echoes Iran’s 2019 strikes on Abqaiq and Khurais facilities, which temporarily removed 5.7 million barrels per day of Saudi production from global markets. Current IRGC posture suggests similar actions are under active consideration should the ceasefire collapse.
The oil market has partly priced this risk, with Brent crude trading above $98 per barrel — well above pre-conflict levels despite OPEC+ continuing its 206,000 barrel-per-day April output increase. Rystad Energy warned that sustained $100 Brent could unlock additional supply, but the threat to Gulf infrastructure means prices may need to climb further to curb demand if any strikes materialize.