The Baker Hughes U.S. rig count serves as a leading indicator for near-term oil and gas production changes, with rigs drilling today typically adding barrels to market within 4-6 months. The total active U.S. rig count currently stands around 580-600, holding relatively steady despite elevated crude prices that would historically drive aggressive drilling expansion. Producer capital discipline remains the defining theme of this cycle.
Permian Basin activity continues to dominate U.S. onshore drilling, accounting for over half of the active oil rig count. Operators in the Midland and Delaware sub-basins have largely completed their most productive drilling locations and are now working through lower-tier inventory, which explains why rig additions are not translating to the production growth seen in prior cycles. Wells drilled today produce 15-20% less than wells drilled in 2022-2023 on average.
The Haynesville Shale has seen meaningful rig additions as natural gas prices recovered from their late-2024 lows. Henry Hub futures above $3.50 per MMBtu are making Haynesville economics attractive again, particularly as LNG export capacity additions through 2026 pull more gas molecules out of the domestic market. Gas-directed rigs now represent about 18% of the total count, up from 14% six months ago.
International and offshore rig activity provides the longer-term supply picture. Deepwater Gulf of Mexico drilling has stabilized at 16-18 active rigs as major operators including Chevron, Shell, and BP work through their project backlogs. The offshore Guyana development, led by ExxonMobil, continues to add production capacity at roughly 200,000 bpd per year. These long-cycle projects will dominate global non-OPEC supply growth through the end of the decade.