Brent crude oil rose 4% Thursday as traders balanced doubts over the scope of an eventual U.S.-Iran deal against surprise signs of tightening global supply.
Reuters reported that ongoing negotiations now point to diminished prospects for a broad agreement and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with talks focused on securing a temporary memorandum to avoid renewed conflict.
The surge came despite President Trump announcing a 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire beginning Thursday, which markets largely discounted given Hezbollah's uncertain response.
The Brent-WTI spread remains elevated versus historical norms, reflecting the ongoing premium on seaborne crude given Hormuz disruption.