Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves but produces only ~800,000 barrels per day — well below the 2015 peak of 2.5 million bpd. Years of underinvestment, sanctions, and political instability have eroded production capacity.
Current Context
Current state (June 9, 2026): Venezuelan production capacity remains a structurally relevant question as de-escalation takes hold in the Middle East. Iran and Israel agreed Tuesday to halt attacks, and crude fell below $90 after the weekend’s brief spike to $95 — with Fitch projecting Brent averaging $87 for 2026 and possible oversupply by 4Q26 once Hormuz reopens. A softer price path reduces the urgency of marginal Atlantic Basin barrels. U.S. sanctions policy on Venezuelan crude remains a relevant input as benchmark prices swing.