Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves but produces only ~800,000 barrels per day — well below the 2015 peak of 2.5 million bpd. Years of underinvestment, sanctions, and political instability have eroded production capacity.
Current Context
Current state (June 13, 2026): Venezuelan production capacity remains a structurally relevant question as a U.S.-Iran signing may near. Pakistan says a final text (the “Islamabad declaration”) is reached, with a Geneva ceremony expected, though the claim is contested. Both drafts commit to reopening the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days. Crude settled Friday at a three-month low (Brent $87.33); OPEC cut its 2026 demand-growth view, and Fitch projects possible oversupply by 4Q26 once flows normalize — a softer price path that reduces the pull on marginal Atlantic Basin barrels. U.S. sanctions policy on Venezuelan crude remains a relevant input.