President Trump threatened renewed military strikes on Iran if U.S.-Iran talks fail to produce a deal, Bloomberg reported Friday morning. The threat punctuates a week of mixed signals: Tehran said the latest U.S. proposal narrows differences, but disputes over Iran’s uranium stockpile and potential Strait of Hormuz tolls quickly reignited tensions, leaving markets to price competing escalation and de-escalation scenarios.
Oil prices reflected the uncertainty. WTI traded between $94.75 and $99.41 in Friday’s session, with the lower bound representing the lowest level since early May. Brent climbed to $103.94, up 1.33% from Thursday but still down more than 6% for the week as markets continued to price in the possibility that the opposing parties may ultimately reach an agreement. The Bloomberg framing — that “every step forward is colliding with a new flashpoint” — captured the choppy texture of the talks.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio described “slight progress” in the Pakistan-mediated talks, but offered no breakthrough characterization. Tehran is currently reviewing the latest U.S. proposal delivered through Pakistan, with no timeline provided for an official response. Iran’s Tasnim news agency said Tehran still views U.S. conditions as overly demanding despite revisions in the latest draft.
The two central unresolved issues remain Iran’s near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile and the Strait of Hormuz toll question. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s directive Thursday that uranium must stay in Iran reversed the transfer-to-Russia element of Iran’s earlier revised proposal. Iran is reportedly working with Oman on a framework that would formalize a permanent toll system on Hormuz transit — an institutionalization Washington has explicitly rejected.
Rapidan Energy Group warned in a research note Friday that if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted through August, the fallout could rival the 2008 Great Recession, with Brent crude potentially surging toward $130 a barrel and triggering a sharp hit to global demand. The warning aligns with Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser’s prior assessment that market normalization is pushed to 2027 if Hormuz reopening is delayed past mid-June, and with IEA chief Fatih Birol’s “red zone” warning for the summer.
Underneath the negotiating choreography, the contingency posture remains visible. CNN reported earlier this week the Pentagon has prepared a range of military plans for Iran in case Trump decides to resume attacks. The dual posture — diplomatic engagement via Pakistan combined with publicly visible military readiness and now explicit threat of renewed strikes — gives Washington negotiating leverage but also raises the cost of any breakdown.
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