President Trump said Monday that he had secured pledges from both Israel and Hezbollah to halt their fighting, even as Iran froze its diplomatic channel with Washington over the same Lebanon escalation. The dual development left the broader picture deeply ambiguous: a tentative de-escalation in Lebanon alongside a suspension of the U.S.-Iran negotiations that markets had been counting on to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
“I had a very productive call with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel, and there will be no Troops going to Beirut, and any Troops that are on their way, have already been turned back,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Likewise, through highly placed Representatives, I had a very good call with Hezbollah, and they agreed that all shooting will stop — That Israel will not attack them, and they will not attack Israel.”
The announcement came hours after Israel’s military warned residents of Beirut’s southern suburb of Dahiyeh, a Hezbollah stronghold, to leave ahead of planned airstrikes — strikes that, as of Trump’s post, had not yet been launched. The warning followed Hezbollah’s claim that it had fired more than 20 rockets and missiles at Israeli military targets and several cities over Sunday and Monday, the heaviest exchanges since a 2024 ceasefire.
Iran’s response had already reshaped the diplomatic landscape. Citing Israel’s operations in Lebanon, Tehran announced it was suspending all communication with the United States, with Foreign Minister Araghchi insisting that any U.S.-Iran ceasefire must extend to “all fronts, including Lebanon.” Iran is demanding Israel halt its offensive and withdraw from occupied areas of Lebanon as a condition for talks to resume.
Trump struck a calming public posture even as the negotiations wobbled. “Just sit back and relax, it will all work out well in the end,” he wrote, in a message aimed at critics of his handling of the Iran file. But the simultaneous reality — a frozen Iran channel, a Hormuz-closure threat, and an unresolved Lebanon front held together by a same-day verbal understanding — left analysts skeptical that calm would hold.
For energy markets, the distinction that matters is between the Lebanon track and the Hormuz track. A pause in Israel-Hezbollah fighting reduces one escalation risk, but it does not restore the U.S.-Iran negotiations or reopen the strait. With Tehran explicitly linking the two and threatening to block Hormuz and open the Bab el-Mandeb front, the path back to the 60-day MOU that looked within reach last week now runs through Beirut.
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