WTI crude futures climbed 1.9% on May 3, 2026 to settle at $107.84 per barrel; Brent rose 1.8% to settle at $111.39. The rally came as Pakistan-mediated U.S.-Iran negotiations entered their fourth week without a public breakthrough, and as physical disruption through the Strait of Hormuz showed no signs of easing.
The negotiating impasse centered on Iran's refusal to formally surrender all highly enriched uranium stockpiles, which the U.S. has set as a non-negotiable condition for any framework deal. Iranian officials, speaking through state media, indicated openness to a verified moratorium but not to physical surrender of existing stockpiles — a position the U.S. has so far rejected.
Tanker traffic data from Kpler showed Strait of Hormuz transits running at approximately 5% of pre-conflict baseline. The U.K. House of Commons Library's analysis described the strait as "effectively closed." Pre-conflict, around 3,000 vessels used the strait monthly; current levels are approximately 150 transits per month.
Underlying physical market tightness was being amplified by speculative positioning. CFTC Commitments of Traders data through the Tuesday reporting cutoff showed managed money long positions in WTI at their highest level since 2014, with non-commercial net longs of approximately 450,000 contracts.
Refined products tracked the upward move. RBOB gasoline futures climbed 5 cents to $3.71 per gallon, with continued passthrough expected to AAA retail averages over a 1-2 week lag. Heating oil futures climbed 4 cents to $3.62. Natural gas futures were largely unchanged at $4.18/MMBtu, reflecting the more limited Hormuz exposure for U.S. domestic gas markets.
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