Oil Prices Expected to Surge as Markets Open Monday — Analysts Warn of $110+ WTI

April 13, 2026 — Oil Prices Expected to Surge as Markets Open Monday — Analysts Warn of $110+ WTI.

Risk Premium Rebuilding After Islamabad Failure

Energy analysts across Wall Street are warning of a sharp crude oil surge when markets open Monday, April 14, following the collapse of U.S.-Iran peace talks in Islamabad and President Trump's announcement of a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude, which settled at $96.57 on Friday, is expected to jump above $105 in early trading, with some forecasts projecting $110+ if the blockade rhetoric intensifies.

The price action reflects the rapid rebuilding of the geopolitical risk premium that had briefly unwound during the two-week ceasefire. When the truce was announced on April 8, WTI crashed 16.4% in a single day — the largest decline since the pandemic crash of April 2020. Now, with talks failed and the ceasefire's April 22 expiration looming, traders are reversing those bets aggressively.

Analyst Forecasts

Goldman Sachs has projected WTI could reach $130-150 per barrel under a worst-case scenario of full conflict resumption and sustained Hormuz closure. Morgan Stanley raised its Q2 Brent forecast to $115, citing the "near-certainty of continued supply disruption." JPMorgan's commodity desk warned that the dual blockade — Iran's closure from the north and the U.S. naval blockade from the south — creates "the most severe oil supply risk since the 1973 Arab embargo."

Consumer Impact

If crude surges past $110, U.S. gasoline prices could climb from the current $4.13 national average toward $4.50-4.75 within two to three weeks. California, already at $5.89, could approach $6.50. The Federal Reserve faces mounting pressure as energy-driven inflation threatens to complicate its monetary policy stance ahead of the May FOMC meeting.