AAA’s national average for regular gasoline slipped to $4.491 Tuesday, down from $4.552 on Friday, as the four-year-high Memorial Day weekend ended and crude prices retreated on U.S.-Iran deal-progression news. The pullback is the first sustained move lower since the pre-conflict baseline broke in late February.

State-level dispersion remains wide and is now diverging from the national trend in interesting ways. Michigan fell 20 cents week-on-week to $4.63, with AAA spokesperson Adrienne Woodland telling CBS Detroit: “Michigan drivers are getting some relief at the pump, with gas prices falling 20 cents over the past week. While the recent drop is welcome, continued volatility and higher crude oil prices could quickly push pump prices higher again.” Oregon, by contrast, set a Memorial Day all-time record at $5.32 per gallon, with state pricing dynamics — CARB-equivalent specifications, refinery constraints — insulating Pacific Northwest pump prices from the national pullback.

Crude prices set the direction. WTI briefly fell below $90 a barrel Monday for the first time in almost three weeks amid signs the U.S. and Iran were progressing toward an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent traded around $98-$100 Tuesday near five-week lows before U.S. defensive strikes in southern Iran caused a partial intraday rebound. Brent fell more than 5% last week; WTI lost more than 8%.

Looking forward, GasBuddy’s summer model still points to a $4.80 nationwide average across the full driving season if Hormuz conditions persist — but deal progression has now injected real downside potential for the first time since the war began February 28. The all-time record $5.02 per gallon (June 2022) remains the upper bound if a deal collapses; a meaningful retracement toward the low-$4 range is plausible if Iran actually begins mine-clearing in early June under the proposed framework.

AAA cited continuing factors driving elevated prices: rising gasoline demand, lower domestic supply, and the prolonged disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. EIA reported last week that gasoline demand edged up to 8.76 million barrels per day; total domestic gasoline supply fell to 214.2 million barrels. Gasoline production declined to 9.3 million barrels per day. The combination has kept retail prices elevated even as crude pulled back, with the typical wholesale-to-retail lag of one to two weeks meaning further pump declines are possible into early June if crude stays softer.

Brown University’s Climate Solutions Lab puts the cumulative gasoline burden on U.S. households since the Iran war began at roughly $24 billion, or close to $200 per household on average. That figure will be a key data point in post-war economic analyses, and one of the catalysts for both political and consumer pressure on Washington to accept a deal that reopens the strait.

Continuing coverage: Gas Prices by State · Oil Prices · Geopolitics.