Brazil produces roughly 4 million barrels per day, with growth driven by deepwater pre-salt fields off the coast of Rio de Janeiro. Petrobras dominates production but multiple international operators have major stakes in pre-salt blocks.
Current Context
Current state (June 9, 2026): Brazilian pre-salt production continues to grow as a non-OPEC supply source as de-escalation takes hold in the Middle East. Iran and Israel agreed Tuesday to halt attacks, and crude fell below $90 after the weekend’s brief spike to $95. Fitch cites strong non-OPEC supply growth — of which Brazil is a leading contributor — among the factors that could recreate an oversupply by 4Q26 once Hormuz reopens, with Brent averaging $87 for 2026. The softer price path tightens pre-salt project economics at the margin. Petrobras output milestones remain key watchpoints.